While the political climate of Gujarat is hot, every person has this single question in mind. Will Gujarat stand by Narendra Modi yet another time? Or will the tide turn and Congress get some green grass on its side? We would try to learn the mood of Gujarat voters.
1. The GST factor: Rahul Gandhi and whole opposition with media have run a campaign in Gujarat showing a scene where every business man is hit by GST and suffering loss. But on the ground this factor hardly matters, as most of Gujarati business committee including Jains and Baniyas are not only traditional BIP voters, instead they are happy with GST. To make you a clear, a Gujarati Businessman knows the long term positive impact of GST.
Though some people are unhappy with various points related to GST, the finance minister has successfully implemented changes at the last moment to keep their traditional voters happy.
2. Anti Incumbency: A whole new generation of Gujarat has grown up under the BJP regime since 1995. Therefore, there would be anti incumbency factor. Some may try to see a change, but let me tell you two reasons why this factor is nullified.
First: The oppn is too weak and the voters know that it will be waste of voting rights to vote Congress, that has no grass root leader. A weak leadership of a seasonal joker who comes only in election times to do Temple Run.
Second: To deal with anti incumbency factor, BJP has cleverly cut the tickets for some of it’s sitting MLAs.
3. Caste Factor: While Patel reservation issue created some initial problems for bjp. The sex CD issue and compromising with congress by Hardik Patel are the reasons why Patel voters have come disillusioned with them. And the way media has hyped the story of Patel votebanks, it’s absolutely unconvincing, only 15% Patel votes can’t decide the fate of BJP. Same hype was created by media in 2012 for Keshubhai. Most of this Patel vote Banks are still intact with Modi. Patel voters would rather choose to stand with a nationalist PM rather than a rioter like Hardik.
4. Development details of Gujarat in 22 years: As compared to the other Congress ruling states here is the progress of Gujarat, which every voter would keep in mind.
Has life expectancy improved?
Yes, from 62 years in 1995 to 69 years in 2016.
Has literacy improved?
Yes, from 61% in 1995 to 80% in 2011.
Has per capita income improved?
Yes, from ₹3,172 in 1995 to ₹148,485 in 2015.
Has HDI improved?
Yes, from 0.45 in 1995 to 0.62 in 2015.
Has unemployment dipped?
Yes, from 8% in 1995 to 0.9% in 2016.
Has crime rate decreased?
Yes, from 0.33% of population in 1995 to 0.2% of population in 2015.
Has road network improved?
Yes, from 70,609 km in 1995 to 179,063 km in 2015.
Has power capacity improved?
Yes, from 6,241 Mw to 23,887 Mw in 2013.
Has FDI improved?
Yes, from ₹74 crore in 1995 to ₹ 22,610 crore in 2016.
Has GSDP improved?
Yes, from ₹63,624 crore in 1995 to ₹1,275,000 crore in 2016.
5. The vote Banks politics: This are words from the recent article by famous Modi hater Rana Ayub in which she explains about the clever understanding of BJP about the sentiments about their voters.
“The poster has two warring factions; HAJ (Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh) and RAM (Rupani, Amit Shah and Modi). This does not need an explainer.
For the Gujarati who has been voting for the BJP, or rather Modi, Narendra Modi is the man who emblazoned Gujarati Asmita by giving Gujarat not just the Prime Minister but also the BJP president”
Here, I fully agree with Rana Auub, unlike Rahul who is doing Temple Run and destroying his traditional secular and muslim vote bank, Modi and shah duo know that their voters will vote them for hindutva and development and they have done all the necessary steps to ensure it.
6. Vote Arethmetic Independent candidates: Nearly all opinion polls have given low numbers to BJP in comparison to 2012 polls. Here, they are making a huge mistake in underestimating the BJP poll strategy of 2012. After Amit Shah inclination as the BJP chief there has been micro level management during polls. In Gujarat there is every 1 BJP KARYAKARTA after every 100 voters. This formulae was successful during UP assembly elections. This strategy is called the “Panna pramukh” ( voter list head of every 100 voters). All this are directly managed directly by Party president Amit Shah.
Opinion polls are comparing the vote share of BJP from 2012(45%), while in 2014 general elections bjp clean sweeped with 26 seats (59%) , so the base of comparison for vote share will be from 2014, it may dip maximum to Max 7 % or 10%. That is 53% or 49%, that is still higher than 2012 polls.
There are many independent candidates which are fielded in the strong hold constituency of Congress that would prove to be disaster for the later. If you go by the micro management , strategy of BJP and oppositions. Here we can say that BJP would get anywhere between 130 to 140. If the voting percentage is high it will further increase the tally of BJP.
Folks A saffron sunami is on rise this December for Gujrat.
(Similar Article has been published in Hindi on PostCard Hindi by same author)